De la dépendance à la diversification : Stratégies économiques face aux fluctuations des prix du pétrole

Abstract

This paper examines the transition of oil-producing economies from dependence to economic diversification through a theoretical and empirical comparative approach, with a particular focus on Algeria. Drawing on the theories of natural resource dependence, the renter state, and productive diversification, the study analyzes how oil rents shape economic structures and long-term development trajectories. Methodologically, the paper adopts a comparative quantitative approach based on key diversification indicators, including the contribution of non-oil sectors to GDP, export structure, and vulnerability to oil price shocks.

The results indicate that countries which have successfully diversified, such as Norway and the United Arab Emirates, have effectively transformed oil rents into engines of sustainable growth through coherent public policies and strong institutions. In the Algerian case, the findings reveal a gradual but tangible process of internal productive diversification, reflected in the growing contribution of non-hydrocarbon sectors to GDP. However, the persistently low share of non-oil exports highlights continued external vulnerability. The study concludes that Algeria is undergoing a structural transition toward diversification, which requires further targeted reforms to strengthen export capacity and ensure long-term economic resilience.